Seasonal Climate Outlook in Cook Islands Outlook

Jan-Mar 2012

This outlook is based upon the 3mth avg SSTa's 1 and 9 (Sep-Nov) (Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies)

Penrhyn Rainfall The forecast is biased towards "below-normal" to "normal" rainfall conditions for  through to the end of  for Penrhyn Rainfall. The probability of "below-normal" conditions occurring is 43% and the probability of "normal" conditions occurring is 41%. The chance of "above-normal" rainfall occurring is lowest at 16%. Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 4 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the January-March period are expected to be "below-normal" about 4 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal" and about 2 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal" . Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the January to March period at Penrhyn Rainfall includes rainfall less than 457.3mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 799mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 457.3 and 799mm. For further information: Please contact the Support Services Manager at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service in Nikao Rarotonga On phone 20-603 or 25-920 or drop us an e-mail on ops1@oyster.net.ck National Weather Service. www.cookislands.pacificweather.org/