Seasonal Climate Outlook in Cook Islands Outlook

Jan-Mar 2012

This outlook is based upon the 3mth avg SSTa's 1 and 9 (Sep-Nov) (Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies)

Rarotonga Rainfall The forecast is biased towards "normal" rainfall conditions for  through to the end of  for Rarotonga Rainfall, with a forecast probability of 58%. The chance of "above-normal" rainfall occurring is 26% while the chance of "below-normal" rainfall is 16%. Another way of looking at this, is that given the current climate conditions, in about 2 out of every 10 years, the rainfall in the January-March period are expected to be "below-normal" about 6 out of 10 years are expected to be "normal" and about 3 out of 10 years are expected to be "above-normal" Note: "Below-normal" rainfall for the January to March period at Rarotonga Rainfall includes rainfall less than 605mm. "Above-normal" rainfall is that which is greater than 791.7mm. "Normal" rainfall lies between 605 and 791.7mm.

For further information:

Please contact the Support Services Manager at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service in Nikao Rarotonga

On phone 20-603 or 25-920 or drop us an e-mail on ops1@oyster.net.ck

National Weather Service. www.cookislands.pacificweather.org/